Predicting election outcomes

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academics 1:13 Predicting election outcomes

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9 Nov 2023

Chaz Nuttycombe, a senior political science major, has become a national source for legislative elections. His company, CNalysis predicts election outcomes with amazing accuracy.

CNalysis is a state legislative election site that I started almost four years ago now. I look at state legislative election data, statewide election data, state legislative campaign finance for, you know, kind of mixed methodologies. And then just kind of saying, all right, so this is roughly about a one in ten chance, a two in ten chance of this electoral scenario happening. Yeah, it's hard to compare to others when you're the only one doing it. You know, there is some modeling that goes to it. But at the end of the day, this is us saying, okay, here's who we think, who wins. Whereas something like 538 or other sites that may use a model, we're not entirely just using modeling. You know, it's more mixed method. There's something called base rating. This is what, using the previous result, especially the most recent result, that election is more likely to look like. And then our mission is to try and get people informed on state legislatures and the more accurate we can get, the better.

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