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COVID-19 simulation model shows vaccination equates to return to full semester experience

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Category: campus experience Video duration: COVID-19 simulation model shows vaccination equates to return to full semester experience

Navid Ghaffarzadegan, an associate professor in the Grado Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, uses a COVID-19 simulation model to illustrate the impact vaccination has on the spread of the virus.

[This is my simulation model.] Narrator: In the race to beat Covid... Navid Ghaffarzadegan: As we are looking into fall 2021, vaccination is the leverage point. Narrator: Virginia Tech Associate Professor Navid Ghaffarzadegan says getting vaccinated is the key to changing the entire story of the pandemic. Navid Ghaffarzadegan: Previously, it was always about the trade-off between do you want to have a healthy environment and get an education or you want to have social life? We're always thinking about that trade-off and that trade-off bothers all of us, right? [The blue line is simulation and the red line is data.] Narrator: Navid developed a simulation model he's now using to show the impact vaccines have on the spread of COVID on campus. Navid Ghaffarzadegan: You validate this model comparing with data that exists out there and then you run the model for different scenarios to see what the model predicts. What if you get 95%? You almost have no infection. Narrator: The mathematical model sums up a vaccination scenario by showing the more people vaccinated, the more Hokies get back to the Virginia Tech experience they crave. Navid Ghaffarzadegan: First, vaccination is good for you. Second, vaccination is good for your community. But what my model adds to those two elements is that it shows it's good for your educational experience at Virginia Tech. It is the only policy that will help us to have a good social life at Virginia Tech, enjoy our education and even benefit more from education, you know, having in-person interactions with our friends and our faculty members, our professors. So that's the third benefit that you get from vaccination. You will have a much better educational experience. Narrator: Without vaccination, Navid it says the race to end the pandemic will take much longer. Navid Ghaffarzadegan: We can have a good, reasonable social life and we can be healthy and we can get good education only if you get vaccinated. So vaccination brings the opportunity of having both sides that we used to think as a trade-off.