Expert explains why the war in the Middle East is making fertilizer more expensive
One of the concerns that has come out of the Iran War is its impact on growing crops.
According to the International Food Policy Research Institute, about 30 percent of global fertilizer trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024. The ongoing conflict in that region has resulted in rising costs and concerns for food producers in the US.
Rory Maguire, an expert in nutrient management and sustainable agriculture at Virginia Tech, explained the specifics of the war’s impact on fertilizer, the effect it is having on growing in the US, and what alternatives there may be for growers.
When fertilizer is mentioned in relation to the Iran war, what specifically is being talked about?
“Three primary nutrients make up most fertilizer— nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. In the US, most of our potassium is mined in Canada. Our phosphorus is mined here in North America, some in North Carolina, some in Florida, and some comes from Morocco. But the one they're really talking about, related to the Iran war, is nitrogen. Nitrogen fertilizer is made from natural gas, and of course, they produce a lot of natural gas in the Middle East. They also have a lot of factories to convert that into nitrogen fertilizer. I think something like 30 percent of global nitrogen fertilizers come out of the gulf.”
Why is fertilizer critical for the growth of crops?
“Just like we need good nutrition, plants need good nutrition. And if we don't eat enough, we're going to be malnourished, and the same with plants. So our soils tend to be deficient in nutrients in terms of getting maximum growth. If you look at the forest, it grows very slowly. Whereas when we're growing our agronomic crops for food, they grow very fast. So if they don't have the available nutrients, they're not going to be able to grow and get that optimum yield.”
How critical is nitrogen to most fertilizers and most farmers?
“If you're short of nitrogen, your crop's not going to grow as well as you would like it to grow. So you'll suffer from decreased yields. Nitrogen is also the nutrient that's not well held in our soils. Soils hold the phosphorus, they hold the potassium very, very strongly. So it's possible your soils already have enough phosphorus and potassium in them based on previous years of application, but nitrogen is very ephemeral. It moves. If it rains, it'll leach. And sometimes it can be changed back into the gas that we're breathing right now. So if you overapply nitrogen in the past, it'll be mostly gone by this year.”
How much does the time of year factor into current concerns?
“This is the major time for the planting season. It depends on where farmers are in the US. Some may have started to plant, but it's really just beginning to ramp up now in terms of the planting season starting. Nitrogen is very time sensitive because it's so ephemeral. So you want to apply a little bit when you plant. And then for something like corn that uses a lot, you’ll apply it again when it gets to about one to two feet tall over the next month. It's that second application, the side dress application, where they may be a little more price sensitive for the nitrogen application to something like corn, as they didn’t have the price locked in.”
What nitrogen alternatives are there to commercial fertilizers?
“Manure is a great source of nutrients. The only issue with it is that there isn't enough of it compared to the cropland. So if we take all of the manure and spread it evenly across the cropland, we're not going to get nearly enough in the way of nutrients. In some areas, such as the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia and the Eastern Shore, there may be enough poultry litter because we have concentrated areas with a lot of poultry. But in other areas, they're too far from those poultry houses, and of course, it costs to transport. So if you can find it, it's a great nutrient source. There just isn't enough of it to go around.
Also, not all crops need nitrogen. We have legumes that will take the nitrogen from the atmosphere. Soybeans are the most widely grown crop in the U.S. that doesn’t need nitrogen fertilizer. So farmers can switch from corn to soybeans, but then if everybody does that, the price of soybeans will go down. So it's always a balancing act that farmers have to play.”
How big a concern is the current situation to the farmers you work with?
“In talking to some farmers recently, they say it's better than the first year of the Ukraine war. When Europe stopped importing gas from Russia, it was another big supply shock. But they said this time around, they're seeing increased prices but not seeing the lack of availability. So yeah, prices are definitely up, but farmers should be able to find it. It's just going to cost more this year.”
Listen to Virginia Tech’s “Curious Conversations” with Rory Maguire to hear more about this topic and practical advice that could be applied to both large-scale farms and small gardens.
About Maguire
Rory Maguire is a professor and extension specialist at Virginia Tech in the School of Plant and Environmental Sciences. He is also the supervisor of the Soil Testing Laboratory at Virginia Tech and conducts training for nutrient management planners who create plans for regulated farms.
Interview
To schedule an interview, contact the Virginia Tech Media Relations Office at mediarelations@vt.edu.
