Expert explains how two unlikely teams landed Super Bowl berths
Each team in Super Bowl LX beat surprising odds to land a spot in the annual most-watched sporting event of the year.
Before the season, both the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots were expected to win only 8.5 games, according to Virginia Tech sport media analytics expert Matthew Zimmerman.
“Each team had daunting betting odds against even getting this far,” Zimmerman said. “The Patriots were 80-1 to win the Super Bowl, while Seattle was 60-1.”
Instead, each team won 14 games. Also, Seattle was the top-seeded team in the National Football Conference, while New England landed in the second seed for the American Football Conference.
“Ultimately, oddsmakers tend to favor teams that made a clear leap forward the previous season, while pundits tend to also pick teams that have recently been contenders,” Zimmerman said. “In both these cases, they benefited from smart personnel moves, good coaching, and great defense. Also, unexpectedly strong play at the quarterback position helped elevate these franchises to this point.”
So which team has the best odds of winning the big game?
“The Seahawks are favored because of their strong DVOA [defense-adjusted value over average], a statistical formula that measures performance against league-average and takes into account every play, every stat, every outcome,” Zimmerman said. “Their number for 2025 is a team record high and also first in the NFL.”
Even so, New England is second in defense-adjusted value over average and less a touchdown underdog. Ultimately, game results may depend on which quarterback can perform best under pressure, Zimmerman said.
“Pundit consensus seems to be that the young Drake Maye [of New England] can be rattled against a great defense,” Zimmerman said. “That’s a fair point, but I’m not sure [Sam] Darnold [of Seattle], playing on this stage for the first time himself, is going to be comfortable for three hours either.”
About Zimmerman
Matthew Zimmerman is an assistant professor of sport media analytics in the Virginia Tech School of Communication. Zimmerman’s research interests include the use of new and social media to facilitate conversations in sports, including fan interactions with organizations. Before entering academia, Zimmerman spent more than five years in his native Southern California working for two daily newspapers, where he covered sports ranging from high school badminton to international soccer.
Interview
To schedule an interview with Zimmerman, contact Margaret Ashburn at mkashburn@vt.edu or Jenny Boone at jennykb@vt.edu.
