Experts examine issues raised by the U.S. extraction of the Venezuelan president

The U.S. military’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has raised complex questions about foreign policy, executive authority, and long-term regional stability, according to two Virginia Tech experts.

Virginia Tech political scientists Paul Avey and Karen Hult are available to discuss what historical precedents suggest and what issues loom in the future. 

Paul Avey on turning military operations into political gains

From a strategic perspective, Avey says the operation aligns with a familiar, often unpredictable, approach to achieving political objectives.

“The operation fits the criteria of a ‘decapitation strike,’ which involves killing or capturing a leader to obtain political goals,” Avey said. “Historically, the U.S. has faced challenges in turning successful military operations into sustainable political gains. Some research finds that imposing a new regime more frequently damages than improves relations.”

Prior to his capture, Maduro signaled a willingness to make major economic concessions but refused U.S. demands to leave office, according to Avey.

“Achieving political objectives by replacing a leader requires that new leaders maintain stability and negotiate either because they share interests or they fear a similar fate,” Avey said.

Reporting indicates that U.S. leaders saw Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, now the acting president, as more willing to work with the U.S. than Maduro. “Yet they are also hedging their bets by maintaining military options if Rodríguez does not align with U.S. policy,” Avey said.

“President Trump’s approval of the operation appears to fit a pattern in his second term of deciding to use military force when he views it as quick and unlikely to result in escalation, such as the June 2025 strikes against Iran,” Avey said.

Karen Hult on political consequences at home and abroad

Hult said the operation also raises questions about executive authority, international norms, and the challenges that follow military intervention.

“However, the nature of the extraction is at best concerning, given international legal norms; evident administration neglect in informing ranking members of Congress, NATO allies, and others in Latin America; and U.S. military attacks outside of Caracas,” she said.

At the same time, Hult noted that past presidential actions and legislative and judicial responses suggest such concerns may have limited legal consequences.

“Actual presidential practice and judicial deference to elected officials, particularly presidents, in this instance and in similar U.S. military actions suggest the key concerns involve political and policy, rather than legal arguments,” she said.

Hult added that uncertainty about post-operation planning could shape how the action is judged over time.

“Justifiable concerns exist about the extent of coordination or planning for what would follow the attack, bringing to mind the so-called ‘Pottery Barn rule’ first coined by commentator Thomas Friedman: ‘You broke it, you own it,’” she said.

She added that the implications extend well beyond Venezuela and U.S. domestic politics.

“The implications extend beyond the U.S. — reinforcing doubts about U.S. trustworthiness in Europe, Canada, Asia, and elsewhere, with the action possibly signaling U.S. retreat to a territorial ‘spheres of influence’ foreign policy that appears uncomfortably consistent with Russian and Chinese initiatives,” Hult said.

About Avey 
Paul Avey is an associate professor of political science at Virginia Tech whose research and teaching interests include nuclear politics, U.S. foreign policy, strategy, and international relations theory. He is author of “Tempting Fate: Why Nonnuclear States Confront Nuclear Opponents.” In 2018-19, he was a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow, based at the U.S. Department of Defense.  Read more about him here.

About Hult 
Hult is professor of political science at Virginia Tech who has expertise in the U.S. presidency, federal and state politics, policy and governance, and federal and state courts. Her research focuses on organizational and institutional theories, the U.S. presidency, U.S. national and state executive branch departments and agencies, and decision-making and governance in complex and volatile environments. The author and co-author of four books and multiple scholarly journal articles, she has served as a contributing scholar to the White House Transition Project. Read more about her here.

Schedule an interview     
To schedule an interview, contact Mike Allen in the media relations office at mike.allen@vt.edu or 540-400-1700.