With the Supreme Court recently hearing arguments around the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the future of his signature economic policy remains uncertain. In the meantime, millions of American families are starting their holiday shopping, much of which will be impacted by whether, or to what extent, retailers pass down existing tariff costs to consumers.

Virginia Tech economists David Bieri and Jadrian Wooten weigh in on the best strategies for shoppers navigating a landscape where the cost of consumer goods is both uncertain and constantly shifting.

“Consumers are likely to see higher prices on imported electronics, toys, and apparel, as these are all categories that rely heavily on overseas manufacturing,” says Wooten.  

Bieri adds that consumer electronics and toys face the biggest price hikes. “We’re talking about up to 4 to 5 percent increases, since China manufactures 80 to 90 percent of these holiday staples and faces tariff rates as high as 145 percent.”  

According to Bieri, shoppers may also see a surprise fee of $80 to $200 from their package delivery service when an item they ordered from abroad arrives, sometimes equal to more than the cost of the item itself. “That’s because the ‘de minimis’ exemption, which allowed packages under $800 to enter duty-free, ended for China and Hong Kong in May, and for all other countries in August 2025.”

“Unless you're certain about shipping origin and duty payment terms, you may want to stick to domestic retailers or established platforms with U.S. fulfillment,” says Bieri.

It’s important to note that even if a Supreme Court decision to strike down existing tariffs came down tomorrow, it wouldn’t change prices this holiday season. Those goods have already been imported.

“Retailers can't retroactively adjust prices on goods sitting in inventory,” says Bieri. “The refund process would be administratively messy. Businesses that paid the tariffs might eventually get rebates, but consumers who already paid higher prices won't see that money back.”

Both experts agree that shopping early and comparing prices carefully will help keep you from overpaying. “The best strategy is to shop early, compare prices across retailers, and look for pre-holiday sales where stores may discount inventory to stay competitive,” says Wooten.

While a Supreme Court ruling before the end of the year may well change the landscape dramatically moving forward, it likely won’t help everyday shoppers this holiday season. In fact, Bieri warns it could trigger more tariffs through other legal means, potentially putting strain on supply chains and making goods harder to find.  

“Even if the court strikes down tariffs, businesses have already absorbed the bulk of tariff costs and are preparing to pass more along to consumers, so prices may rise further regardless of the ruling,” says Bieri.  

About Bieri
David Bieri is an associate professor in the School of Public and International Affairs and an associate professor of economics at Virginia Tech. Bieri has been covered by outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, TIME, Newsweek, CNN, and Marketplace among many others. He previously worked in investment banking and served in senior roles in central banking. View Bieri’s full bio.

About Wooten
Jadrian Wooten is a collegiate associate professor with the Virginia Tech Department of Economics. Wooten’s weekly blog, Monday Morning Economist, tackles economic issues in pop culture and current events. Wooten has been featured in The New York Times, TIME, USA Today, and NBC News, among scores of other media outlets. Read more about him here.

Interview
To schedule an interview with David Bieri or Jadrian Wooten, contact Noah Frank at nafrank@vt.edu or 805-453-2556.

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