Virginia Tech researchers are leading an effort to develop an easily usable, Virginia-specific tool, to forecast which strategies can move commuters out of cars and onto buses, trains, and bikes.

Sami Hasnine, assistant professor in civil and environmental engineering, is working with researchers from the Virginia Department of Transportation and the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation to build the tool based on their study of existing programs and policies that promote alternative transportation. The project lead from the VDOT side is Peter B. Ohlms, a senior research scientist at the Virginia Transportation Research Council, the research division of VDOT.

The impact goes beyond ridership numbers. Every trip that shifts from car to transit helps reduce congestion, improve air quality, and strengthen the social fabric of communities.

Research team members, led by doctoral student Daud Nabi Hridoy, reviewed 73 peer-reviewed articles and 19 technical reports from around the world about to identify which transportation demand management strategies most effectively increased transit ridership.

The top three strategies were:

  • Programs offering free passes, discounts, or rewards for choosing buses and trains were consistently effective in moving riders away from solo driving.
  • Secure bike parking and bike-sharing hubs near stations make it easy for someone to ride the first or last mile of a trip, switching seamlessly to or from a bus or train. With these options, people who live or work too far from a stop to walk have another alternative.
  • Programs that encourage newcomers to try public transportation, along with guaranteed-ride-home services that provide a backup plan for emergencies, also play an important role in building trust and confidence.

It matters because every day, millions of people decide how they’ll get from point A to point B. For many, the car is the default option. As congestion, emissions, and sustainability challenges mount, encouraging people to ride public transit has never been more urgent.

Transportation demand management strategies include programs and policies that are designed to reduce reliance on single-occupant vehicles and promote alternatives such as buses, trains, carpools, and bikes. Hasnine’s study brings clarity to which of these strategies can move the needle on transit ridership and how Virginia can use them to strengthen its transit systems.

Predicting what riders will choose

Identifying these strategies is valuable, but for state agencies in Virginia that oversee funding programs, the bigger challenge is knowing what will work before investing time and money.

To address this gap, Hasnine is developing an evaluation tool for Department of Rail and Public Transportation that will allow decision-makers to test transportation demand management strategies on paper before committing to them. The tool combines two kinds of data. Revealed preference data shows how people currently behave, what transportation they use, and how often they use it. Stated preference data asks people how they would behave if new options were available. Combining these perspectives offers a more realistic model of travel behavior.

Hasnine’s team is designing an advanced revealed-and-stated preference model tailored specifically to Virginia. Once built, the tool will be flexible enough for use by the commonwealth, local transit agencies, and transportation demand management organizations across the commonwealth. For the first time, leaders will have a way to forecast the impact of single strategies or combinations of strategies on ridership and mode choice behavior without the guesswork.

A road map for Virginia communities

The implications for Virginia are significant. The evaluation tool will allow communities debating incentive programs or expanding bike-share stations to make data-driven decisions. Instead of relying only on national studies or trial and error, agencies will soon have a Virginia-built tool to forecast outcomes in their own communities.

The impact goes beyond ridership numbers. Every trip that shifts from car to transit helps reduce congestion, improve air quality, and strengthen the social fabric of communities.

Hasnine’s study aims to help the Department of Rail and Public Transportation give Virginians more reliable, convenient, and affordable ways to move through their daily lives. By identifying proven strategies and building a tool to test them in advance, his work will empower local and state agencies to design smarter, more effective policies.

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