Virginia farms could face both immediate and long-term economic consequences because of tariffs imposed by the United States on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, and because of tariffs imposed on U.S. goods by those countries in return.

Virginia Tech agricultural trade policy analyst Xi He shared an overview of the challenges that the commonwealth’s agricultural industry might have to anticipate and navigate.

“U.S.-imposed tariffs on key agricultural imports, such as potash from Canada, increase costs and disrupt deliveries for agribusiness firms. These firms, especially those relying on just-in-time logistics for fertilizer, will face higher expenses and operational delays, straining the broader supply chain. These disruptions can then ripple through rural economies, in regions like the Shenandoah Valley,” He said.

“With tariffs raising the price of potash — a vital fertilizer component sourced largely from Canada, which supplies over 85 percent of U.S. needs — the strain on Virginia’s agricultural industry would particularly impact production costs of tobacco, corn, soybeans, wheat, and barley,” He said.

“At the same time, retaliatory tariffs from Mexico, Canada, and China in response to U.S. tariffs would particularly affect Virginia soybeans, poultry, pork, and tobacco, as these face significant economic threats tied to disrupted trade with key partners,” He said. “Retaliatory tariffs make it more costly for foreign countries to purchase U.S. agricultural products compared to products from other origins, which could reduce demand for U.S. products and depress prices.

“Additionally, Virginia’s agricultural production will face significant uncertainty, especially during the critical planting season. Farmers will confront a high-stakes dilemma, deciding now — amid trade uncertainty — whether to plant soybeans, expand poultry, or adjust rotations, with markets like China and Canada in flux,” He said.

“Before the U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, Virginia’s agricultural industry stood as a robust economic force, contributing $3 billion in agricultural exports in 2024 and $3.2 billion in 2023, with China accounting for $171 million, Canada with $338 million, and Mexico $179 million. The state ranked high nationally for poultry and leaned heavily on exports.

“Higher costs for American goods in these markets reduce demand, cutting into farm revenues and increasing uncertainty for producers,” He said. “Small farms — over 90 percent of Virginia’s around 40,000 operations — will be especially vulnerable, as they often lack the financial cushion to absorb these shocks. Faced with rising input costs and declining export opportunities, many could struggle to stay afloat.”

About He 
Xi He’s research focuses on understanding how agricultural and food policies are formed and how they affect food security and public health at global, national, regional, and micro levels. Read more about her here.

Schedule an interview   
To schedule an interview, contact Mike Allen in the media relations office at mike.allen@vt.edu or 540-400-1700.  

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