Satellite imaging techniques help researchers understand Libya's 2023 flooding disaster
Aging infrastructure, political instability, climate change, and human decisions created conditions for the catastrophic flood disaster in Libya in 2023, according to a new study from Virginia Tech geoscientists published in Nature Portfolio Journal Natural Hazards.
The flooding, caused by the collapse of two dams following a record-breaking storm, resulted in the deaths of over 11,000 people and damage to more than 8,500 buildings.
Led by Manoochehr Shirzaei, the study used advanced satellite imaging techniques to detect structural vulnerabilities in the dams. The researchers found that the Bu Mansour and Elbilad dams showed signs of differential settlement — uneven sinking — at rates of up to 2.2 mm per year.
"These dams had been structurally deteriorating for years,” Shirzaei said. “Inadequate maintenance and political instability left them vulnerable to collapse."
The researchers also examined how climate change exacerbated the disaster. For example, extreme rainfall, intensified by climate change, overwhelmed the aging infrastructure.
The findings emphasize the importance of proactive disaster risk management, including infrastructure monitoring, early warning systems, and community resilience programs. Lessons learned from this disaster are applicable worldwide, particularly in regions with similar vulnerabilities, according to Shirzaei.
