Pacific Island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience at least 6 inches of sea level rise by 2050, according to recent analysis by NASA’s sea level change science team, which includes Virginia Tech researchers.

The sea level change team undertook the analysis of this region at the request of several Pacific Island nations working in close coordination with the U.S. Department of State. Maps of the extent of flooding were developed by scientists at Virginia Tech and the University of Colorado Boulder.

“The novelty of this tool is that it’s up to date, and it corrects older, less accurate sea-level rise predictions,” said Mike Willis, associate professor in geoscience and NASA sea level change team member. “It’s also high-resolution and repeatable for the same place. For example, if a storm comes through and changes the shape of the beach, we can update our predictions.”

The researchers started by creating flood maps of Pacific Islands Kiribati, Tuvalu, Fiji, Nauru, and Niue. They looked at very high-resolution digital surface models for more than 400 large coastal cities, sourced from NASA’s commercial satellite data acquisitions.

“We get these digital surface models, put them at the right place on the planet and the right elevations, and then we look at how sea levels will change in those areas over the next decade to a century,” Willis said.

Next steps include building high-resolution maps for other Pacific Island nations to operationalize the data and help policy makers decide where to focus mitigation efforts.

Flooding on island nations can come from storm surges or exceptionally high tides, called king tides. But it can also result when saltwater seeps into underground areas and pushes the water table to the surface.

The analysis by the sea level change team found that the number of high-tide flooding days in an average year will increase substantially for nearly all Pacific Island nations by the 2050s. The analysis was also included in a sea level rise report published by the United Nations in August.  

“Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,” said Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA’s Earth Science Division. “NASA’s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.”

Virginia Tech researchers involved with the NASA sea level change mission include:

  • Mike Willis, associate professor of cryospheric studies, geodesy and remote sensing, Department of Geosciences
  • Jessica Rich, social scientist for coastal research
  • Maria De Los Santos, a master's degree student in the Department of Geosciences

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