The Trump-Harris debate: Experts lay out the stakes for both candidates

On Tuesday, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will share a stage in what likely will be the only presidential debate prior to the November election. Political scientist Karen Hult and media and public relations expert Cayce Myers provide their thoughts on what both candidates will set out to accomplish and what weaknesses they must overcome.

Karen Hult on the challenges both candidates face

“Although debates typically do not have detectable differences on vote choice, this year might well be one of the exceptions, reflecting the evident closeness of the race and the divisions between and within the two major parties. President Joe Biden’s decision not to seek reelection and Harris’ rapid replacement as the Democratic candidate have added to the seeming turbulence and uncertainty of the race,” Hult said.

“Many potential voters do not focus on fall presidential elections until after Labor Day. The earliness of the first and perhaps only debate between Harris and Trump, combined with voters’ possible lack of familiarity with Harris, her views, and her agenda, suggest large numbers of people likely will try to view or listen to at least some of the debate,” Hult said.

“Viewers also may want to see how the two candidates respond to each other. Each side is already downplaying their candidate’s likely performance with a goal of lowering expectations. Trump also is experimenting with ‘rigged debate’ and ‘unfair questions’ narratives,” Hult said.

“A presidential debate is challenging for virtually all candidates, as it arguably should be in a representative democracy. Harris faces the challenge of building upon her strong emergence as a presidential candidate and the generally successful Democratic National Convention. Her responses to criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration, queries about her past positions and actions as an elected official, and questions about her objectives for a Harris-Walz administration will be parsed, scrutinized, and critiqued. As a woman and a person of Jamaican Indian descent, she also will be expected to be knowledgeable, calm, and decisive, and appear able to work with and earn the respect of those in the military and in other countries,” Hult said.

“Trump also will need to display policy understanding and to articulate plans for a second term as president and whether and how it might differ from the first. He should expect some questions about the varying court cases in which he is a defendant, including the now-postponed sentencing for felony convictions in the New York hush money case. His interactions with Harris also may be relevant to views on his treatment of and comments about women generally and claims he has made about Harris’s ‘weakness’ in ‘standing up’ to leaders of other countries,” Hult said.

Cayce Myers on potential debate strategies

“The upcoming presidential debate is high stakes for both Harris and Trump because they both can conceivably win the presidential election. However, debates have a way of reframing elections, and a bad debate performance by either candidate can have a significant impact on their campaign. Even a slight drop in support can create a potential loss in November,” Myers said.

“In the debate, Harris will likely want to engage Trump on issues where he appears antagonistic or out-of-sync with voters. Democrats have used the issue of abortion access and a woman’s right to choose as a central campaign issue. She will likely bring up that issue and also attempt to tie Trump to Project 2025, a conservative policy plan created by the Heritage Foundation that Trump has attempted to distance himself from,” Myers said.

“Trump will likely engage Harris by accusing her of flip-flopping on key issues such as fracking, border security, and police. He will also bring up her policy plans for price controls and taxation of unrealized gains as examples of how her administration would increase inflation and cause economic harm,” Myers said.

“What is unknown is how the candidates will stylistically come across to viewers. Harris’ team likely wants Trump to come across as aggressive and bombastic, which may alienate voters. His off-the-cuff statements have been problematic for him in the past and can be repackaged as campaign content — that’s the underlying issue with the muted mic debate rules,” Myers said.

“Conversely, Trump’s team is likely hoping Harris comes across as disorganized and nonspecific in her responses. She has been heavily criticized by Trump and the media for not taking a standalone press conference in weeks. She also has shown weaknesses in her debating, which were evident during the 2020 Democratic primary. She was at her best when recalling facts and policy positions, but not as strong responding direct attacks on her record,” Myers said.

“It is important to remember televised presidential debates are not the same as structured academic debates. There is an element of entertainment, which means candidates have to be energetic. Trump has an advantage in that aspect of the debate. Both candidates will likely have a high level of antipathy to the other, and that energy will be obvious to the viewers. Extemporaneous debate comments from either candidate have the power to resonate with voters positively and negatively, and, as the Trump-Biden debate showed, these unscripted comments have a viral quality that frames the election narrative,” Myers said.

Find more Virginia Tech election experts here.

About Hult  
Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, serves on the faculty of the School of Public and International Affairs’ Center for Public Administration and Policy with expertise in the U.S. presidency, federal and state politics, policy and governance, and federal and state courts. Read her full bio here.

About Myers  
Myers, director of graduate studies at the School of Communication in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences, specializes in media history, political communication, and laws that affect public relations practice. Read his full bio here.

Schedule an interview  
To schedule an interview, contact Mike Allen in the media relations office at mike.allen@vt.edu or 540-400-1700.