Researcher looks at economic impact of reduced humanitarian assistance in East Africa

When humanitarian assistance is reduced, the impact can extend from the household level to the broader local economy, according to a study led by Anubhab Gupta, assistant professor in the Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.

The study highlights the potential impact of a 25 to 50 percent reduction in food and cash transfers by the United Nations World Food Programme on food security outcomes for the internally displaced population in Somalia and the refugees in Uganda.

The findings underscore the critical need for continued humanitarian support to address the challenges faced by vulnerable populations in these countries.

In 2021, the United Nations World Food Programme assisted 34.4 million people in East Africa through various initiatives, including providing nutritious meals to school children and specialized food transfers for at-risk populations. By the following year, the number of food-insecure individuals in East Africa had risen to 82 million, caused by climate change, global economic crises, and disruptions in food supplies from the conflict in Ukraine.

With the demand for assistance in Somalia and Uganda surging and with the United Nations World Food Programme facing significant funding shortfalls, this poses challenges in assisting those in dire need.

“Access to food and other assistance will impact families and local economies,” Gupta said. “This study provides evidence of how detrimental reducing assistance would be to this region on food security and other welfare outcomes.”

Millions of Somalis struggle with hunger and malnutrition amid ongoing conflict and climate challenges.

Somalia's food systems are under immense pressure from weather shocks, civil unrest, environmental issues, rising food prices, and limited infrastructure. The United Nations World Food Programme has been ramping up its efforts in Somalia, particularly after the severe drought of 2020-23. In January 2023, the organization disbursed $45 million in cash and 7.1 metric tons of food to 4.1 million people, including vulnerable internally displaced persons and local households. Even with these efforts, Somalia still had a funding gap of $378 million from November 2023 to April 2024, which threatened assistance to almost half of the population in need.

If United Nations World Food Programme assistance is reduced, the total impact on local income is $2.63 in U.S. dollars per lost dollar of assistance, Gupta said. “Assistance to the internally displaced population in Somalia creates economic spillovers to nonbeneficiary households through a multiplier effect. By curtailing monetary support for beneficiaries, income and production spillovers diminish and the food insecurity situation in the local economy worsens.”

The study also suggests that a reduction will result in the beneficiaries being able to access no more than three food groups. Gupta said such low levels of dietary diversity will have catastrophic effects over the short and long term. The groups that will be immediately affected are children and expecting mothers.

The effect on Uganda would be no less concerning, according to the study. The country hosts the largest refugee population in Africa, which quadrupled from 390,000 to 1.6 million from 2014-24. Most of these refugees are women, children, and older people fleeing conflict in South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, or Sudan. In 2023, the United Nations World Food Programme provided food assistance to 1.4 million of these refugees.

“A reduction in assistance is projected to cause a substantial decline in Uganda’s refugees Food Consumption Score,” Gupta said. “Pushing many into a ‘borderline or poor’ dietary adequacy category.”

The Food Consumption Score, developed by the United Nations World Food Programme, assesses the diversity and frequency of food groups consumed over the past seven days. This score is then weighted based on the nutritional value of the consumed food groups.

Next-generation economists

“Growing up in India, I always had a curiosity about the decision-making of the poor and its impact on their lives and broader communities,” Gupta said. “I believe in training the next generation of economists through research projects with my students. Experiential learning is crucial for students to apply knowledge effectively and make a global impact post-graduation.”

Deepak Kumar and Tao Qi, Ph.D. candidates in the department, assisted Gupta with the study.

“Working in a multi-organizational setup taught me a lot, giving me hands-on experience in various research stages,” Kumar said. “The insights and skills gained from this study will be pivotal as I continue to develop my dissertation, which will include a chapter incorporating the Somalia work.”

“Under Professor Gupta’s mentorship, I conducted extensive data analysis and paper writing,” Qi said. “He was incredibly supportive, encouraging me to persevere through the inevitable challenges and setbacks that come with rigorous academic research. His approach was not just about providing answers but also about teaching me how to find solutions independently, fostering a sense of self-reliance in my research abilities.”

The study was conducted in collaboration with the International Development and Research Associates, UC Davis, Kagin’s Consulting, and the United Nations World Food Programme Regional Bureau in Nairobi, Kenya.

View the full study on "The Cost of Inaction: Impacts of WFP Assistance Shortfalls on Food Security Outcomes in Somalia" and "The Cost of Inaction: Impacts of WFP Refugee Assistance Shortfalls on Food Security Outcomes in Uganda."