June 2024 Biden-Trump presidential debate: Experts give nine takeaways
During their first 2024 debate, incumbent President Joe Biden did nothing to allay concerns about his age and health, while former President Donald Trump ducked issues to focus on personal attacks and grievances, according to the analyses provided by Virginia Tech experts. Political scientist Karen Hult and media and communications expert Cayce Myers shared their assessment of the debate’s content and impact.
Four takeaways from Karen Hult
- Biden continued the pattern of weak performances by incumbents in the first presidential debate of their reelection bids (e.g., Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, even Trump)
- Neither candidate succeeded in countering narratives about their limitations and weaknesses:
- Biden frequently spoke haltingly and in s raspy voice; he occasionally appeared passive, with relatively low energy, sometimes fumbling for words and seeming to lose focus. He also missed opportunities to describe key positions and actions simply — for example, regarding reproductive rights and abortion, actions on immigration, and support for historically Black colleges and universities.
- Former President Trump gave exaggerated, sometimes false responses; he often rambled, returning to past problems and claims of unfairness.
- Trump’s persistent focus on immigration suggests this will be a key area of emphasis and a vehicle for criticizing the current administration on issues ranging from crime to jobs to financing for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security to opioid addiction to veteran homelessness.
- The debate format did reduce the interruptions and volatility of previous debates. It did not, however, keep the candidates from answering questions other than those asked or permit more sustained questioning about positions or more general views of contemporary challenges, values, or priorities.
Five takeaways from Cayce Myers
- Biden’s performance was poor and did not meet expectations. The issue with his voice has sparked serious concern among Democrats, and it places a question as to whether he will be the nominee in November. Some Democrats will call for a replacement. The problem with that is, who would be the replacement? Plus, Biden would have to make the decision to step down and then release his delegates for the convention. The logistics of that would be very difficult and create uncertainty as to the nominee, which ultimately would weaken whoever the replacement would be.
- The debate was not about issues, but about personalities. The substance of the debate was about who was the worst president, devolving into golf handicaps. That likely has no impact on undecided voters. It’s hard to imagine the debate made any voters change their mind about who to vote for.
- Trump’s debate performance was highly personal against Biden. He avoided many questions and focused on other talking points. He was, as expected, rough toward Biden. He did not seem to have trouble with the rules and did not interrupt. Trump’s performance will likely not be the issue, however, given Biden’s voice, look, and incoherence.
- The issues were mainly about the economy and the border. The viral moments of the debate will be Biden’s quote, “We finally beat Medicare.” That statement early in the debate along with Biden’s appearance framed the debate spin, and likely will be the main talking point in news coverage.
- The moderators did a good and evenhanded job. They asked questions that would have been expected, though many substantive questions received no answer by either candidate.
Find even more Virginia Tech election experts here.
About Hult
Hult, professor of political science at Virginia Tech, serves on the faculty of the School of Public and International Affairs’ Center for Public Administration and Policy, with expertise in the U.S. presidency, federal and state politics, policy and governance, and federal and state courts. Read her full bio here.
About Myers
Myers, director of graduate studies at the School of Communication in the College of Liberal Arts and Human Sciences, specializes in media history, political communication, and laws that affect public relations practice. Read his full bio here.
Schedule an interview
To schedule an interview, contact Mike Allen in the media relations office at mike.allen@vt.edu or 540-400-1700.
