Wildfire season could be later, stronger than usual due to earlier storms, says expert
The threat of wildfires is generally impacted by the availability of dry vegetation, high temperatures, and high winds. While peak wildfire season usually starts in late spring, heavy rains in traditionally drought-stricken areas have led to a wetter spring this year, pushing the peak season later into the summer and potentially leading to a more severe wildfire season.
According to wildfire expert Brian Lattimer, this year, El Niño has caused wetter conditions in areas typically more prone to more wildfires, which also has resulted in more fine fuel growth at this time of year. “The combination of higher fine fuel growth due to early wet conditions and increased dry conditions late summer/fall can lead to very severe fires,” he says. Severity will depend on when the pattern switches over to La Niña, the timing of which remains uncertain for now.
“There is an expected switch from El Niño, with warmer Pacific water temperatures, to La Niña where you have cooler Pacific water patterns,” says Lattimer. But, perhaps counterintuitively, the heavy rainfall has actually primed these areas for potentially more severe fire danger in certain areas, due to more growth that can burn, once it has dried out. “With the switch to La Niña conditions and higher than expected rainfall earlier this year, the Southwest over through Texas have the potential to have more severe wildfires,” says Lattimer.
About Lattimer
Brian Lattimer, department head and Nicholas and the Rebecca DesChamps Chair Professor in Mechanical Engineering at Virginia Tech’s College of Engineering, directs the Extreme Environments and Materials Lab, which focuses on safety in extreme environments primarily related to fire. His wide-ranging project leadership and research has included ignition and burning of materials exposed to firebrands from wildfires, full-size humanoid robots to perform watch and fire suppression on U.S. Navy ships, and most recently, developing firefighting foams that do not make use of environmentally harmful forever chemicals, also known as PFAS.
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