With 2 weeks left in the midterm election cycle, Virginia Tech Political Science Professor Karen Hult says Democrats face a big challenge to maintain control of both the U.S. House and Senate.

“Controlling the House seems unlikely for Democrats. The goal is to achieve a small gap in seats between the parties,” says Hult. “Maintaining a Senate majority is more achievable, reflecting the seats up for election this cycle and strong Democratic candidates.”

She offers this assessment of the election landscape:

Keys for Republicans as they try to gain control of Congress

-Voter turnout -- especially among those in less densely populated areas (small cities/towns, exurbs, more rural areas), white evangelical religious adherents, Latino/as especially in Florida and Texas.

-Emphasis on supporting Republicans as a team, or group loyalty, is an important undercurrent: (“we” are different from “them,” and “they” neither understand nor respect “us.”)

-A focus on Biden administration performance (e.g., low approval levels, economic problems) is important across most races. Depending on the House district and state, this is complemented by and tailored to more regional and local concerns (e.g., jobs, education quality, immigration).

Keys for Democrats as they try to maintain control of the House and Senate

-Democrats will emphasize the achievements of the Biden administration (e.g., infrastructure legislation, student loan support, Medicaid extension).

-Some candidates and party groups will continue to run an anti-Trump/Republican campaign.

-Democrats must focus on mobilization and boosting turnout, especially among younger voters, African Americans, the college-educated, and professional women.

About Hult
Virginia Tech political science professor Karen Hult teaches political science at Virginia Tech and its Center for Public Administration & Policy, with expertise in the U.S. Presidency, U.S. state politics, policy, and governance, and organizational and institutional theory. See her bio.

Schedule an interview
To secure an interview, email Michael Stowe or call 540-392-4218.

 

 

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